A new book that revels in small sample sizes and random pigeons (probably, I haven't read it) conclusively proves that Moneyball and Sabermetrics are wrong. After all, what have the Red Sox won since Theo Epstein took charge?
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/03/prweb5139404.htm
things that can be counted often don't count;
ReplyDeletethings that count often can't be counted.
-A. Einstein
btw-Theo et. al. work with 200million in payroll. the better question is what have the Oakland A's won?
But the alternative is that because we can't project when a pigeon will interfere with play, you might as well assemble any old rubbish as a baseball team and leave the rest to chance.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to argue the Red Sox only succeeded because of their money, not because of Moneyball, whilst the A's are sabermetric failures, we'd need to look at W/L records of teams by payroll, and see whether the A's (or other sabermetric teams) are outliers. Which would be quite interesting.